A few months ago, I was in line outside a restaurant with a group of agitated patrons. We had all called in our orders an hour+ ago and still hadn't gotten our food. It was a popular Thai restaurant in Tahoe and was only being staffed by two people on a Saturday night in summer. One employee handling orders and customers and one person cooking. They had a sign on the door that said "hiring now"! Clearly, they wanted more workers but couldn't get any.
This is happening all over the US. An Alabama pizzeria recently posted it will "literally hire anyone: If you're on unemployment and can't find a job, call us; we'll hire you". They were getting so few applicants the owner decided to lower the bar to any human body.
There is a national narratiyve of a labor shortage. However, the chart below shows that unemployment rates are slowly returning to pre-pandemic levels.
If there isn't a labor shortage, then why does it seem that way? It's because people are shifting away from human-facing roles to working behind a computer. People got a taste of not doing their daily job and it gave them time to reconsider a career shift. There is not a labor shortage, but a labor misalignment.
I got dinner with a friend in NYC who before the pandemic was a dancer. He supplemented his dancing income with working at a popular restaurant. The pandemic dried up the dancing and the restaurant industry almost overnight. To make ends meet he started working in an entry-level remote real estate job. He says he used to make more money waiting tables, but that it was much harder work. He says, for now, he will stay on the remote real estate path, even though the restaurants have opened back up.
People are switching to jobs like in the image on the left. The image on the right is a black Friday in retail and people are not running back to those jobs.
People have got a taste of working from home and going back is not a preferred option.
Acoording to a recent survey, workers who want to quit overwhelmingly say they’re looking for a new job with more flexibility. Half of the people currently working remotely say if their company doesn’t continue to offer remote-work options long-term, they’ll look for a job at another company that does.
Zoom Boom Towns
Towns like Jackson Hole are a perfect example of the future of the workforce and the labor misalignment. Jackson Hole saw its population explode as thousands of remote workers flocked to the picturesque town. These towns in particular felt the pinch of a labor shortage as schools, restaurants and public service jobs struggled to keep up with the influx of people.
Housing prices in these towns skyrocketed and the town can't hire new people because the service jobs don't pay enough to live close to work. As a result, Ski town locals are understandably skeptical of newcomers. Crested Butte stopped all its tourism advertisements because they said they can't handle any more people. They have too many remote workers, and not enough service workers and affordable housing.
What is our path forward?
Many people will return to jobs once the unemployment checks dry up and Covid is in our rearview mirror. However, many people will not come back to those same jobs. They will move into different types of jobs, many of which are remote-friendly.
The in-person businesses will increase the adoption of automation as a way of cutting costs. The Zoom boom towns that adopt the best will be the places that invest in cheaper and denser housing. This will give slack in the housing market for local workers to live close to work. We need to build build build. Many local municipalities have a program for teachers who can get first dibs on foreclosed homes and access to low-interest rates.
The job market is one of the many things the pandemic has irrecoverably changed. I’m excited to see where it goes.
Half of Canada lives below this line
I watched this video and was blown away that half of Canada lives below Seattle. Mostly in an area near the great lakes. For such a large country it is fairly urbanized. 80% of Canadians live in a city compared to the world average of about 50%.
What is an Acre?
The old British term for measuring land. It comes from how much land an ox could plow on a typical day. No longer much of a useful reference point today, but the term remains ubiquitous in the US. Here are some rules of thumb:
Pic of the Week
It's wedding season! Jenny and I’s best friends Sam and Alison are getting married tomorrow. I have been friends with these two since 2009 and am excited to be the best man at their wedding. This is a throwback picture of a hike we did in Yosemite circa 2017.